$1.45b “Talent Gap” that sank the USA in Brazil

You can’t put a price on the effort and heart of the USA Team in Brazil or indeed the never- say- die attitude that impressed and amazed the  soccer world and excited millions of fans in the USA.

You can however put a number on WHY they lost: and it’s about $1.45 billion.

Why so sure ? Well that’s the difference in “talent”  between the USA and the rest of the teams they faced in Brazil. How do we measure talent? In the only way the soccer world does: Transfer value.  Of course some players aren’t worth what is spent on them but universally it’s the financial benchmark against which all players are measured.

So how did the USA Team stack up in the “talent stakes” ? And just how good was the escape from the “Group of Death”?  The short answers to both are “not good” and “exceptional ” in that order.

Let’s take a look at transfer value of the starting line-ups for each of the USA Games

(source: transfermarket.co.uk)

On paper the Germans were 13 times better than the USA, (at times they played like it) , Portugal 6x and Belgium 7x . It gives you an idea of what the USA faced and explains why (at times) Howard stood alone. Ghana was dispatched early on: but at only 1.6x better they were easy “statistical prey”. Klinsmann got the very best out of a group of committed , willing and brave players, who produced results that belied their “perceived value” .

The above though only relates to the actual “starting” team:  it is squads not teams that win World Cups.  So how did the USA’s 23 squad match up with the rest?

When the game is not going your way you need “fresh legs”.  The USA’s opponents were able to draw upon legs $1.45b more “talented” to change the game and squeeze out a result.   Lukaku for Belgium did just that , and the USA were out.

Of course there is a ton of subjectivity around the premise that the most valuable teams (or squads) automatically win, Spain being the prime example. In reality however if they don’t the coach should go (and usually does) .

It’s fantastic for the game in the USA that the team gained the respect of the watching world and the hearts of the media and fans at home , but until we close the talent gap we have no chance of winning it.

However anyone questioning Klinsman as a coach needs to wake up !

Regards

Gary

Postscript.

The next decade will bring forward the most technically gifted, culturally diverse and physically capable generation of players this country has ever produced. We have the possibility of developing players worth $10s of millions

I have said this for years; there is more raw talent (and more of them) on our youth fields than almost any country in the World.  Belgium (population 11.4m) was boringly average a decade ago perfecting the art of a 0-2 loss when it mattered most. They will however be one of the favorites at both the Euros in France and World Cup in Russia 2018. Why and How ?

England beat Germany 5-1 in a World Cup Qualifier 13 years ago . A blistering wake up call !  Germany’s reaction was to  set fire to their manuals and start again. No need to explain what happened next!

Matches anyone !