When the facts change , I change my opinion . What do you do, sir ?
John Maynard Keynes
So what do you do when the facts change ?
How you react when facts change is a critical element to problem solving , particularly when faced with imperfect information , unpredictability or the problem is just too large in scope to make sense of.
Fortunately there is a 300 year old mathematical theory that just might help!
It is simple, (but controversial) and is called Bayes’ Rule. I received a book on it for Christmas . (You might well ask “why?”)
Do I understand it all ? Not a chance ! (but that’s my mental shortfall not Bayes’s). I figure however that if Alan Turing used it crack the enigma code and defeat Hitler then it can’t be all bad.
Conceptually the rule is simple , we modify our opinions with objective information:
“Initial beliefs (our guesses) + recent objective information = A new and improved belief “.
Of course, the clever guys could not leave well alone and they gave it scientific terminology.
Prior to: the probability of the initial belief
Likelihood: probability of other hypothesis once new data arrives
Posterior: probability of the newly revised belief
Bayes Equation
Each time new information is found the equation is “reset”, with the posterior becoming the new prior (starting point) It is an ever evolving system with every new piece of information getting you ever closer to certainty.
As said, the methodology was not only used to crack the Enigma Code , it also allowed the British Navy to find and destroy German U-Boats . In modern days it helped Kennedy change US Nuclear security policy and Air France to find its lost plane at the bottom of the Atlantic and a lot lot more.
What the heck has this got to do with soccer you might rightly ask ?
Well it’s simple really. Let us try to use a 300 year theory to answer the perennial naysayer question “When will Soccer ever Make it in America? (not exactly rescuing the free world but hey!)
Over the past 25 years the facts for soccer have been changing and changing fast. Soccer in the USA in 1990 bears little resemblance to what we now have in 2015. What was once thought about the game is now not so. We have new objective data , new information , new landscapes and as such a new hypothesis for the probability of what will happen to soccer over the next 10 years.
Let’s try and be a bit “Turing” here.
Naysayer Question 1990: “When will soccer ever make it in America ?”
Naysayer Question 2015: When will soccer make it in America ?
The equation has changed and changed dramatically.
The new starting point in 2015 (prior) is one of great strength and completely different to 1990. Obviously therefore you have to change the probability for success over the next 10 years and change it significantly higher.
When do we declare we have “cracked” the soccer enigma code in the USA ? I would have said 2022 , when (if the voting had gone as it should ) the USA would have played host to the most successful World Cup in history. Without this I would say 2026 , when the correct decision is made.
It’s a mathematical certainty and Turing would have agreed!
Gary
I have of course dumbed down the theory and done a complete disservice to the memory of Alan Turing , for which I apologize. He solved a a problem with 180m x million x million x million permutations : that changed daily. I know soccer is often perceived as complicated in the USA but….
He truly was a great British Hero and was treated appallingly. The brilliant film : “The Imitation Game” will tell you all.
The book, by the way, is called “The Theory that would not die” by Sharon Bartsch. If you have a spare month to read it and then another to try and understand what it actually said, go ahead and read it.
SOCCER-BIZ-USA 
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