US Men’s Soccer – SOCCER-BIZ-USA

Viva Mexico ! (Trump take note)

November 17, 2016 by Gary Hopkins : SoccerBizUSA Leave a Comment

This post I made last year seems even more relevant today !!!!

Gary

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Let me first state I am a USA fan. It matters when they lose and I have followed them through 7 World Cups. My wife and kids are also USA fans, Men’s and Women’s of course.

Equally though, I am a soccer fan and want to see the sport grow in the USA. For that to happen we have to applaud, recognize and support the Mexican team and their incredible fans.

Mexico is without doubt the USA’s biggest rival, both on and off the field. In fairness, they gave us a good spanking on Saturday night (despite the 3-2 score line) and if we don’t improve we may have to get used to it.

There could be a new Sheriff in the region and, my friends, it is not the USA.

So why Viva Mexico?

Because like a constant thorn in the side, losing to Mexico is instantly painful and until reversed, continually festering. It’s the one game you just have to win and as such the better Mexico becomes the less complacent the US can be.

I have to admit though that I love watching Mexico play, and admire their passion, their commitment and their skill.

Their fans also always amaze me. Sure, you might get some beer tossed your way but they bleed the green, live every kick, and every sense of their cultural identity is wrapped up in the team wearing the jersey. You get a true sense the players know they are playing for their country and their fans. It shows in every extra run, every last minute tackle and of course every last minute winner.

I am not saying the USA team do not individually feel the same and that Red White and Blue does not run through their veins, I am sure it does. So we were either technically not good enough or had a “bad day at the office”. I’m no coach so I will leave it the “experts” to dissect and in reality we have had Mexico’s number for the past few years.

Unfortunately, the US team did not perform anywhere nearly as well as their fans.

Sure, in an incredible crowd of 93,000 it was still probably 70% Mexican but the packed throngs of the “America-end” were fantastic. A seething cauldron of “USA USA” every bit as passionate and intense. In all my 25 years of watching the USA this was most fanatical and inspiring fan support against Mexico I have ever witnessed. This in a stadium in LA that basically represented home territory for the boys in green.

Mexico is indeed our arch nemesis on the soccer field, with a rivalry every bit as vitriolic and passionate as you would want. They are also an amazing part of the USA soccer fabric and have played and continue to play, an incredible role in soccer’s past , present and future.: they also represent a constant barometer to the skill and heart of the USA Team and the passion of its fans.

A great Mexico Team is exactly what soccer in the USA needs.

Note to Trump.

Come to a USA v Mexico game and see Mexican families wearing both the El Tri and the Stars and Stripes. Witness the respect for their own and the USA national anthem. Enjoy the tailgating parties where you will see both USA and Mexican flags billowing alongside each other , with both burgers and burritos aplenty !

This is Soccer in America and it represents the very best of a multicultural inclusive United States.

Viva Mexico!

Regards,

Gary

Filed Under: Hispanic, US Men's Soccer

Viva Mexico ! (Trump take note)

October 13, 2015 by Gary Hopkins : SoccerBizUSA 1 Comment

Let me first state I am a USA fan. It matters when they lose and I have followed them through 7 World Cups. My wife and kids are also USA fans, Men’s and Women’s of course.

Equally though, I am a soccer fan and want to see the sport grow in the USA. For that to happen we have to applaud, recognize and support the Mexican team and their incredible fans.

There could be a new Sheriff in the region and, my friends, it is not the USA.

So why Viva Mexico?

I have to admit though that I love watching Mexico play, and admire their passion, their commitment and their skill.

Unfortunately, the US team did not perform anywhere nearly as well as their fans.

A great Mexico Team is exactly what soccer in the USA needs.

Note to Trump.

This is Soccer in America and it represents the very best of a multicultural inclusive United States.

Viva Mexico!

Regards,

Gary

Filed Under: Hispanic, US Men's Soccer

The Enigma Code : How a 300 Year old theory predicts the future of US Soccer

January 25, 2015 by Gary Hopkins : SoccerBizUSA Leave a Comment

When the facts change , I change my opinion . What do you do, sir ?

John Maynard Keynes

So what do you do when the facts change ?

How you react when facts change is a critical element to problem solving , particularly when faced with imperfect information , unpredictability or the problem is just too large in scope to make sense of.

Fortunately there is a 300 year old mathematical theory that just might help!

It is simple, (but controversial) and is called Bayes’ Rule. I received a book on it for Christmas . (You might well ask “why?”)

Do I understand it all ? Not a chance ! (but that’s my mental shortfall not Bayes’s). I figure however that if Alan Turing used it crack the enigma code and defeat Hitler then it can’t be all bad.

Conceptually the rule is simple , we modify our opinions with objective information:

“Initial beliefs (our guesses) + recent objective information = A new and improved belief “.

Of course, the clever guys could not leave well alone and they gave it scientific terminology.

Prior to: the probability of the initial belief
Likelihood: probability of other hypothesis once new data arrives
Posterior: probability of the newly revised belief

Bayes Equation

Each time new information is found the equation is “reset”, with the posterior becoming the new prior (starting point) It is an ever evolving system with every new piece of information getting you ever closer to certainty.

As said, the methodology was not only used to crack the Enigma Code , it also allowed the British Navy to find and destroy German U-Boats . In modern days it helped Kennedy change US Nuclear security policy and Air France to find its lost plane at the bottom of the Atlantic and a lot lot more.

What the heck has this got to do with soccer you might rightly ask ?

Well it’s simple really. Let us try to use a 300 year theory to answer the perennial naysayer question “When will Soccer ever Make it in America? (not exactly rescuing the free world but hey!)

Over the past 25 years the facts for soccer have been changing and changing fast. Soccer in the USA in 1990 bears little resemblance to what we now have in 2015. What was once thought about the game is now not so. We have new objective data , new information , new landscapes and as such a new hypothesis for the probability of what will happen to soccer over the next 10 years.

Let’s try and be a bit “Turing” here.

Naysayer Question 1990: “When will soccer ever make it in America ?”

turing 1990

Naysayer Question 2015: When will soccer make it in America ?

The equation has changed and changed dramatically.

The new starting point in 2015 (prior) is one of great strength and completely different to 1990. Obviously therefore you have to change the probability for success over the next 10 years and change it significantly higher.

When do we declare we have “cracked” the soccer enigma code in the USA ? I would have said 2022 , when (if the voting had gone as it should ) the USA would have played host to the most successful World Cup in history. Without this I would say 2026 , when the correct decision is made.

It’s a mathematical certainty and Turing would have agreed!

Gary

I have of course dumbed down the theory and done a complete disservice to the memory of Alan Turing , for which I apologize. He solved a a problem with 180m x million x million x million permutations : that changed daily. I know soccer is often perceived as complicated in the USA but….

He truly was a great British Hero and was treated appallingly. The brilliant film : “The Imitation Game” will tell you all.

The book, by the way, is called “The Theory that would not die” by Sharon Bartsch. If you have a spare month to read it and then another to try and understand what it actually said, go ahead and read it.

Filed Under: MLS, US Men's Soccer

$1.45b “Talent Gap” that sank the USA in Brazil

August 17, 2014 by Gary Hopkins : SoccerBizUSA Leave a Comment

You can’t put a price on the effort and heart of the USA Team in Brazil or indeed the never- say- die attitude that impressed and amazed the soccer world and excited millions of fans in the USA.

You can however put a number on WHY they lost: and it’s about $1.45 billion.

Why so sure ? Well that’s the difference in “talent” between the USA and the rest of the teams they faced in Brazil. How do we measure talent? In the only way the soccer world does: Transfer value. Of course some players aren’t worth what is spent on them but universally it’s the financial benchmark against which all players are measured.

So how did the USA Team stack up in the “talent stakes” ? And just how good was the escape from the “Group of Death”? The short answers to both are “not good” and “exceptional ” in that order.

Let’s take a look at transfer value of the starting line-ups for each of the USA Games

(source: transfermarket.co.uk)

On paper the Germans were 13 times better than the USA, (at times they played like it) , Portugal 6x and Belgium 7x . It gives you an idea of what the USA faced and explains why (at times) Howard stood alone. Ghana was dispatched early on: but at only 1.6x better they were easy “statistical prey”. Klinsmann got the very best out of a group of committed , willing and brave players, who produced results that belied their “perceived value” .

The above though only relates to the actual “starting” team: it is squads not teams that win World Cups. So how did the USA’s 23 squad match up with the rest?

When the game is not going your way you need “fresh legs”. The USA’s opponents were able to draw upon legs $1.45b more “talented” to change the game and squeeze out a result. Lukaku for Belgium did just that , and the USA were out.

Of course there is a ton of subjectivity around the premise that the most valuable teams (or squads) automatically win, Spain being the prime example. In reality however if they don’t the coach should go (and usually does) .

It’s fantastic for the game in the USA that the team gained the respect of the watching world and the hearts of the media and fans at home , but until we close the talent gap we have no chance of winning it.

However anyone questioning Klinsman as a coach needs to wake up !

Regards

Gary

Postscript.

The next decade will bring forward the most technically gifted, culturally diverse and physically capable generation of players this country has ever produced. We have the possibility of developing players worth $10s of millions

I have said this for years; there is more raw talent (and more of them) on our youth fields than almost any country in the World. Belgium (population 11.4m) was boringly average a decade ago perfecting the art of a 0-2 loss when it mattered most. They will however be one of the favorites at both the Euros in France and World Cup in Russia 2018. Why and How ?

England beat Germany 5-1 in a World Cup Qualifier 13 years ago . A blistering wake up call ! Germany’s reaction was to set fire to their manuals and start again. No need to explain what happened next!

Matches anyone !

Filed Under: Uncategorized, US Men's Soccer, World Cup Tagged With: us players, us soccer, World Cup