World Cup – SOCCER-BIZ-USA

$1.45b “Talent Gap” that sank the USA in Brazil

You can’t put a price on the effort and heart of the USA Team in Brazil or indeed the never- say- die attitude that impressed and amazed the soccer world and excited millions of fans in the USA.

You can however put a number on WHY they lost: and it’s about $1.45 billion.

Why so sure ? Well that’s the difference in “talent” between the USA and the rest of the teams they faced in Brazil. How do we measure talent? In the only way the soccer world does: Transfer value. Of course some players aren’t worth what is spent on them but universally it’s the financial benchmark against which all players are measured.

So how did the USA Team stack up in the “talent stakes” ? And just how good was the escape from the “Group of Death”? The short answers to both are “not good” and “exceptional ” in that order.

Let’s take a look at transfer value of the starting line-ups for each of the USA Games

(source: transfermarket.co.uk)

On paper the Germans were 13 times better than the USA, (at times they played like it) , Portugal 6x and Belgium 7x . It gives you an idea of what the USA faced and explains why (at times) Howard stood alone. Ghana was dispatched early on: but at only 1.6x better they were easy “statistical prey”. Klinsmann got the very best out of a group of committed , willing and brave players, who produced results that belied their “perceived value” .

The above though only relates to the actual “starting” team: it is squads not teams that win World Cups. So how did the USA’s 23 squad match up with the rest?

When the game is not going your way you need “fresh legs”. The USA’s opponents were able to draw upon legs $1.45b more “talented” to change the game and squeeze out a result. Lukaku for Belgium did just that , and the USA were out.

Of course there is a ton of subjectivity around the premise that the most valuable teams (or squads) automatically win, Spain being the prime example. In reality however if they don’t the coach should go (and usually does) .

It’s fantastic for the game in the USA that the team gained the respect of the watching world and the hearts of the media and fans at home , but until we close the talent gap we have no chance of winning it.

However anyone questioning Klinsman as a coach needs to wake up !

Regards

Gary

Postscript.

The next decade will bring forward the most technically gifted, culturally diverse and physically capable generation of players this country has ever produced. We have the possibility of developing players worth $10s of millions

I have said this for years; there is more raw talent (and more of them) on our youth fields than almost any country in the World. Belgium (population 11.4m) was boringly average a decade ago perfecting the art of a 0-2 loss when it mattered most. They will however be one of the favorites at both the Euros in France and World Cup in Russia 2018. Why and How ?

England beat Germany 5-1 in a World Cup Qualifier 13 years ago . A blistering wake up call ! Germany’s reaction was to set fire to their manuals and start again. No need to explain what happened next!

Matches anyone !

USA: The 3rd Best “Performing” Team at World Cup 2014

This might sound ridiculous , but it’s actually not. You might also think I took a kick to the head when I tell you that tiny Costa Rica (not Germany) was number 1. Let me explain and you can decide.

The premise is simple. The quality of the teams entering a tournament can be ranked and measured by the transfer value (on the open market) of the players that are in its squad. Transfer Value is the one metric that the soccer world uses to determine quality. Yes it’s subjective and many players are over priced, but it is also the one unifying measurement tool all teams use to assess players with “hard cash” changing hands. Transfer Value is the Stock Exchange of the soccer world On paper (and in theory) the team with the “best” players should win the tournament. Again, not necessarily true but it’s a good starting point and benchmark to decide favorites and underdogs .

With this in mind SoccerBizUSA.com is introducing a new metric (That i know of) to highlight just how well the USA (and Concacaf Teams) performed

“Transfer Value Performance Index” © TVPI.

Formula

Transfer Value Rank entering Tournament MINUS Final Position = “TVPI”

Now clearly the USA was not the 3^rd best team in Brazil , but the above represents a plausible argument for saying they were the 3^rd best* “over-performing” team in the tournament . It also shows American fans (in a quantifiable way) just how much of an underdog the USA were going in and as such how more impressive making the last 16 was.

Example

Full Chart TVPI Ranking #

Player for player Spain were the “best team” entering the tournament, yet finished last with a TVPI of -22 woefully underperforming . Followed very closely by England and Italy. Costa Rica entered 29^th in “value” yet finished 8^th giving them a positive TVPI of +21), making it the number one “over performing” team Brazil. (Which would be hard to argue with) .

Germany the actual winners and the true best team . entered ranked 2^nd and finished 1st (TVPI = +1) As such they were expected to do well and did. Sound familiar!.

The USA entered the Tournament ranked 26^th in squad transfer value , (at just $82m) . They finished a very credible 15^th giving then a TVPI of +11 and overall 3rd best score * . And why not ?. They escaped the “Group of Death” and never had one “easy” game. Sure, on any given day Belgium could have scored 5 and Germany the same, but the reality is they didn’t. (The USA are not Brazil after all !! ) Equally, had Wondolowski scored when he should have , the USA would have been top 8. That’s soccer.

By any measure, whether it be heart and passion , guts and grit or “quantifiable” numbers, it is clear the USA “over- performed” in Brazil against quantifiably enormous odds. They and we should be proud of what was achieved.

You can agree or disagree with the premise but when you look at the hard numbers it was an incredible performance. It actually again becomes even more impressive again when you look behind the transfer value numbers….which I will highlight in my next blog and infograph in a few days.

Gary

Also huge Kudos to another Concacaf Team Mexico who finished joint 3rd with the USA in my rankings list. Exciting and enthralling to watch they had a horrendous qualification series but came up big when it mattered most. (Still can’t believe how they let the Holland game escape them)

Question ? Here’s a haunting question : “Why does the entire value of the USA squad only come to $82m?.

By my reckoning that means there was a $1.4b gap in the “quality” between the USA and the Teams they faced in Brazil. That’s a Billion by the way !!! (No wonder Tim Howard had to make 16 saves.) The simple truth is that heart and passion alone does not win a World Cup. ( If it did it might be touring the USA now.) Only teams bursting with recognized and tested World Class talent ultimately win World Cups . The reality is the USA is currently sadly short of any truly truly World Class talent. About $1.4b short to be precise.